Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments

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To: RockyBalboa who wrote (4211)	10/16/1998 1:07:00 AM
From: drakes353	Read Replies (2) of 18998

Christian: You should check out this page, it has the performance numbers already calculated.... fool.com So even counting today a mechanical equally weighted piece by piece short across this collection netted a return approaching 30% when the market did not undergo that drop. How are you calculating that? I calculate the return of that list as -14.4% through today. Keep in mind to that until today the average stock was something like 50% off its July high. Those are not encouraging results. Tough to make a solid market to basket comparison though since you're dealing with multiple dates. A more apples to apples view would be to look at the performance of Daily Troubles from the same period and compare it to the performance of the Daily Doubles. Here are the numbers for the Daily Troubles.... fool.com (BTW, AOL subscribers can get their hands on a more download friendly, dump it on into Excel, sort it by date version of this table from the "Investment Ideas" area off of the Fool's Main Screen.) The average return of the Daily Troubles (those appearing July 7th thru today) was -30.3% If you exclude the stocks that closed below $5 (since many of us can't short stocks below $5) on the day they were mentioned the return improves (gets more negative, good for us shorties) to -34.5% Far and away the better shorts where the Troubles, not the Doubles. This result is in sync with what many studies of stock price behavior have found. Take a look at O'Shaughnessy What Works of Wall Street, O'Neill How to Buy Stocks if you get the chance. Happy shorting! drakes353

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