Yes Mqurice, Fleck has been an advocate of the yellow metal for a while now, actually since before the massive rally in gold shares so he deserves some credit on that score, and he also was correct about serious blowups in the banking sector before Wall st caught on. He's been so bearish on the mkt for such a long time though that he often appeared ridiculous as prices skyrocketed, but I'm sure you've heard the quote attributed to JP Morgan when asked how he managed to make so much money .." I always sell too early".
Maybe the reason at times "Cash is King" is exactly because it's impossible to know which hill to head for so it makes sense to do nothing and wait to see who's left standing after the dust settles.
I don't find his argument entirely consistent however. He's an overcapacity/deflationist/ credit crunch kind of guy, so I don't really understand why he's so negative on US Dollar, after all inflation is excess cash chasing too few goods and deflation the opposite. Surely the problems are not worse in the US than anywhere else, unless one thinks we really are looking at Japan circa 1989, and others are likely to lower rates also, a form of competitive devaluation which might not accomplish the goals espoused in Ramseys "reflation" piece.And can't gold producers just crank up production once the price rises, they've got fancy new technologies just like everyone else.
I agree with you in general re QCOM, in fact I loaded up last week. Never before had the opportunity to scoop em up under 40, which betrays my status as a neophyte. I am however concerned that we're going to see the same overcapacity in cellphones that exist in other markets, although this should hurt Q less than some others.
It's my guess that traders will begin to sell this rally this afternoon and if it survives the weekend they will sell aggressively next week, as Fleck says, many stocks are up BIG since last Thursday. Hopefully from here on out people will start looking at companies instead of the mkt but don't count on it.
dvae...
PS..anyone who clones me would be making a big mistake. |
