Don't rule it out that this IBM announcement wasn't using KM! We can't possibly know for sure I imagine so speculating is just that, speculating. Fine to do but just remember what we're doing.
BTW, we can finally put a few #'s on KM possibilities for 97, seeing as Maxtor has about a 5% market share of the disk drive market, which at this point is forecast to sell maybe ~130M drives in 97. 5% of 130M is 6.5M drives, but KM won't be available till latter half of the year, so conservatively taking 1/2 of 6.5M, we come up with KM potentially being sold on 3.25M disk drives in the 4th quarter. Take the Redchip estimate of $.50 per media, 2 media average per disk??, $1 per disk, Bingo $3.25M profit, or $.07/share in the 4Q 97 for AXC soley from Maxtor's 4Q intro.
Hey, I know it's rough math and all guestimates, and I know it'll be different than this rough beginning guess, but it shows what can be done by analysts once these agreements are signed, analysts can get busy with estimates and publish them publicly thru Zacks where it'll show up on everyone's quantitative screens. |
