<<someone here needs to tell the neophytes that the historical record of the market after 3 fed easings is one of enormous gains over the next year. I have just been waiting for someone else to say it since I hoped to not get out in front here again as I had to dodge a few tomatoes.
Again, we have had a huge run for 1 week so hold the name calling if things flatten out, but getting in the way of an accomodative fed is historically suicidal.>>
Eugene:
Hi there; I've enjoyed all of your posts and opinions. I guess I'm one of those neophytes, in for only three years and only at mid 6 figures, but nonetheless I feel comfortable with modest risks (they've produced 300% returns for me). My question / counterpoint: have not the all of past slowdowns (which have then resulted in fed easing) been the result of the fed having put an end to the party? Is not this time different, in that the market reigned in the overleverage by itself, causing the fed to react? I'm too ignorant to confidently speculate that this difference will create unique results this time, but my gut feels a LARGE downside risk still present in the market, up to 6 months out. Will they fix Brasil? Will market sentiment turn against the Japanese fix, rendering it another sham? Is memory overcapacity going to disappear on schedule? etc., etc. Amidst all of this, AMAT is approaching a forward PE of 40 today, and yet may announce a loss this Q (BEFORE restructuring adjustments, IMHO), and yet earnings revisions are not yet complete. All IMHO. Bets regards,
BP |
