"Well, you guys are finally beginning to succeed in scaring the bejesus out of me!"
I do not share Dark Side's apocalyptic views. Note that they can never be disconfirmed, even in theory. Because, if "the powers that be" succeed in postponing near-term calamity through their chicanery, that means that the eventual catastrophe will be all the greater -- and so on. Thus, the apocalypse hypothesis can never be disproven.
Dark Side has made some good macro calls -- as with Russia. (However, I don't know that his predictions about New Zealand or South Africa have come to pass.) Furthermore, as with Alan Abelson's column in Barron's, I want to keep abreast of the bears' best case, lest something catch me by surprise.
Most importantly, Dark Side has outstanding insights into the fundamentals of individual companies. For example, Dark Side has pointed out how options for management greatly reduce a company's earnings, without being adequately reflected on the income statement. He has shown how the switch from net income to operating earnings in computing p/e's has moved the goal posts in favor of sell side analysts. He wisely reminds us that record high p/e's are warranted only at the bottom of an economic cycle, not at its peak. And, so on.
GADR's "3rd Era" thesis is that mature free markets are becoming more stable over time, with favorable consequences for financial assets. Conversely, Dark Side believes that credit excesses and government-fiat money are making them less stable, with corresponding consequences.
Personally, as always, I have a cautiously optimistic view. If you are reasonably confident about the business prospects of your investments, I would continue to accumulate. See yesterday's Wall Street Journal's front page for details on the disaster that befell the hitherto highly respected Brandywine Funds when they started to try to time the market.
Reynolds Russell
web.idirect.com
"There are no sure and easy paths to riches in Wall Street
or anywhere else." (Benjamin Graham)
"All things excellent are as difficult as they are rare." (Spinoza) |
