TD: Among metals, silver is the best waiting game in town. Price is behaving very much in line with my expectations, i.e., over 30+ years as a mining/metals Analyst I've observed that metal price begins to inch up as industry figures excess stocks are dwindling and smelter/refinery capacity is fully utilized.
However, most industrial consumers will not hoard materials until actual threat of shortage materializes as measured by lengthening delivery lead times.
Hence, I've seen in aluminum, copper lead, nickel, steel,zinc, etc. that prices explode only as Inventory/Copnsumption (I/C) ratio falls to, and below, the "normal working stock" level.
The supply/demand deficit guarantees that the I/C ratio will decline below the working stock level but possibly more than two years hence.
However, with a large retail short position, big spec interests could rig silver prices sharply higher by making major purchases and temporarily diminishing available inventory.
Bottom line for me is cautious trading of call options on COMEX futures to have a toe-hold awaiting big move.
RH |
