PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year Message Board

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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year

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Oct 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (2781)	10/16/1998 2:31:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (3) of 4509

Hi MH, I'm worried as well about 1999 but I'm puzzled why you aren't long PSFT. Not that the recent experience hasn't been a considerable hurt. It has. But your posts have made some of the the most intelligent cases for ownership. For example, you said that you thought it will gain share on SAP and eventually be the market leader. I think you may be right. I seldom hear anybody bad mouthing the product or the organization. The only problem seems to be Y2K related and some saturation of the ERP market. It's harder in the future. Every business gets that way. But there isn't anything (that I know of right now) wrong with the organization or its products. And contrary to the "commodity" argument made this week, it's not a commodity. ERP companies own their clients because the cost of switching is too high. Now, if you buy the above, the market is offering you an opportunity to buy the stock at price to sales and price to earnings multiples that haven't been available for 5 years. And 5 years ago, it was a much smaller company that warranted lower multiples. I certainly can't provide any assurances that the stock won't get hammered the day after earnings, but even so, it is too good a business to stay down forever. And if that happens, it becomes cheap enough to be acquired by Gates or even Oracle. I have to admit that I'm concerned about my position. LLcoolG has correctly pointed out that it has lost its sponsorship (GS) and it will take a while. But if we get an earnings hit, I'll sell something else to buy more of this stock unless the conference call says that the PSFT world has changed completely since the call last month. Having said that, I would feel awful if you bought and it just kept going down. So, sorry to unload. Misery loves company.:-) David

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