David,
>The Osborne analogy - why no discussions? <
Before my time. Ozzie Osborne?
>About 12 years ago when Adam Osborne pre-announced his new model, he killed all sales of his current product. Why will Apple escape this same fate?<
What new model did AAPL announce that will kill off sales of it existing units? New stuff is always coming out.
If you mean the NeXTOS, CTO Ellen Hancock has publicly stated that all Macs currently shipping will be able to run the new OS. Also, CEO Gilbert Amelio said he expects System 7 to still be in use ten years from now.
Witness AAPL's unprecedented commitment of resources to fixing it PowerBook problems. This is what generates good will -- and an 80+% level of customer loyalty.
From on a consumer/small business POV, the new OS is a non-issue. Anecdotally, at least, the issue hasn't arisen. Small business and graphics artists come in telling me what they want to do and asking for the most cost effective way of doing it.
If a first time buyer asks about something for their family, I emphasize the ease of use and versatility. I recount the story of a father videotaped his seven year old setting up and booting a Performa 6400 in 45 minutes -- the kid never having touched a computer before.
>I, for one, think all sales of Macs will dry up in the next few months.<
Mac CPU sales continue to grow. 1996 was particularly bad because of the PowerBook debacle when there was no product to be had. If they've lost market share it's because PC sales have grown more. A smaller share of growing pie is different than sales "drying up".
High margined PowerMacs are selling well and the Exponential X704 500mhz (upgrade?) is due out 3Q.
Overseas, AAPL's uniquely powerful Worldscript and voice recognition capabilities in Mandarin, Cantonese and Kanji should ensure it, at least, a niche in emerging markets.
Powerbooks are in very high demand -- 200 mhz models due out soon and their older models are already tested, in PC journals, faster than their allegedly quicker Pentium brethren.
Mac servers are the easiest to set up and excellent choices for small-mid size businesses. Sales command 20+% of that market.
Newtons are best of their PDA class with a thousand+ programs and strong penetration in vertical markets.
Claris software has shown a rise in revenue. It's business software is rated, by user survey, superior to MS Office -- on both Mac and Wintel platforms.
The (multi-platform) NeXT OS has the goods to make inroads on NT in enterprise markets. Most encouraging note -- I found out that both Doom and Quake were written on NeXT. Way cool. (Hey Randy, how come you always hold out on the good stuff.) :)
AAPL's biggest shortcoming, IMO, is marketing. Nonetheless, celebrity Mac users include Rosie O'Donnell, Rush Limbaugh, Marleen Maitlen, Troy Aikmen and Tom Clancy. Spokespersons?
The Chicago Bulls use Macs and Newtons during the game to analyze opposing teams formations and formulate countering strategies.
Shot: Phil Jackson courtside, scribbling into his Newton 2000. ...
(Hey Gil, can I help with marketing? Pleeeese.)
Yes, David there really is an AAPL.
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