Hi Diana (and Thomas),
I do have some investments in the Russian Oil sector (haven't had it for too long though) but Diana, you really should get long in Rational it's still a good train to catch.
In my opinion, RATL has now established the classic GORILLA pattern (referring to the book "The Gorilla Game" by Geoffrey Moore et. al):
* Proven to be the dominant leader in their field
* Quote: "non-existant competition", meaning their primary competition is in big trouble - while RATL is still growing...
* Have proven earnings and overall growth
* Intelligent "technical management" in evolving their technical competence into products that produce sales numbers.
* "Wall-Street aware" managers - no further comments necessary.
* The products they are releasing have now crossed the critical point in the "paradigm chasm", does anyone doubt that within any reasonable time frame that object-oriented technology is not the way to go !!??
What they still should focus on:
* Low-price competitors (they are coming: look at the new VSIO tool)
* Understand the value of the "development process" (hey Rational guys, you are sitting on a goldmine here, understand the customer value of it, make the customers understand it, make money of it, and of course sell tools to it - but overall realize the "added value" (M. Porter) - tools are great, but without a process they don't create the competitive advantage! Process is what can make really BIG money - go for it !)
* Integration (though they have done great: from a customer point of view the integration of Pure Atria and Rational has been a success) -- still there's a lot of work to do in the integration part - if you want to be the REAL gorilla.
Being the gorilla in a market niche means high year-to-year growth, and that the stock will go up accordingly. Naturally RATL is influenced by the current volatility (and if you think US market is volatile, you should at my home-turf which is the Swedish Market!). Wall Street still doesn't understand what they're doing and where the future rests, but for the people who understand (me and you that is) it's a great ride.
Sorry folks, when I start typing I rarely stop. If I have any fans left and you want a stock tip look at ODIS (Object Design), they're in a great position to take off but is really "misunderstood" (I have stock in ODIS, don't take my word for it but have a look at them).
Regards to all ( + Diana especially!),
/Hans-Erik
P.S.
I've recently also read the book "Bear Market" by Rotschild. If you believe that book (long-term) disregard everything I've said and run for cover. |
