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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 225.75+2.5%1:47 PM EST

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To: blake_paterson who wrote (25397)10/16/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
"Did the slowdown occur because of the fed or because of over-leveraging in Asia and (subsequently) in our hedge funds (not to mention our collective irrational exuberance here on the Street)"

As you obviously know, it occurred due to overleverage, and enthusiasm.

As you and Clark are getting at, is this "different this time?" Think about it, since when did financial bull markets NOT end in bubbles? The leverage bubble burst, money became tight, the fed eases. This is the way it happens. It happened in 1990. This is no different, except that it is worldwide because the economy is now a world economy. That is what is throwing people off track; our economies performance is more dependent this time on others. It IS very hard to figure, and leads me to the belief that we will be out of the woods when we see Japan show a bit of consistent improvement.
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