Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era

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To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (903)	10/16/1998 6:38:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) of 1722

>>I do not share Dark Side's apocalyptic views. Note that they can never be disconfirmed, even in theory. Because, if "the powers that be" succeed in postponing near-term calamity through their chicanery, that means that the eventual catastrophe will be all the greater -- and so on. Thus, the apocalypse hypothesis can never be disproven.<< I have no apocalyptic views. I have the view that if we stay on our present course we will get very poor results long term one way or the other. That course is not carved in cement. It can be changed at any time. The present path of intervention is a very poor one. Of course one cannot prove it, but one can look at the results of other countries that have taken the same path and then look at the results. Government intervention either direct or through central banks always fails in the long term. Market forces always win. >>Dark Side has made some good macro calls -- as with Russia. (However, I don't know that his predictions about New Zealand or South Africa have come to pass.)<< I made no predictions about either South Africa or New Zealand at all. I pointed them out as having high risk profiles. Thus they were both vulnerable and should be watched to determine the course of the crisis that was still in its early stages. Brazil is in a similar boat now. (which I also spoke about many months ago.) Since the time I pointed that out, the South African Rand was attacked, depreciated significantly and required multiple central bank intervention to stabilize it. The New Zealand currency also weakened significantly and the country still sports a significant current account deficit. Just setting the record straight. I never make macro predictions in my market views. I point out risks only.

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