Regarding Gresham: the building will be already up and running. And that is not cheap - Lehi's empty shell cost MU I think $800M! After that, the fab can be started up in modules by adding equipment as needed (already that is easily said than done, with lead times, have to predict the right time tables of when to add). And adding equipment is mostly depreciation, minimum expanse.
One thing about Japan I want to add: their 'recession' is different from others. The average Joe still have money, even though their Tokyo apartment is no longer >$1M. If the confidence is restored, if a Reagan comes out and say "Don't worry! Be happy! Spend!" the whole consumer spending thing can turn fast, just as with US and Reagan.
Regarding the world economy, I think we've just about hit bottom. I was worried two weeks ago when the rate cut was only 1/4%. That, if left in place and the stock market going down, would probably have tanked US housing starts and consumer spendings. I am thinking about selling a property. Went out 2 weeks ago and looked - the market was just about dead! Couldn't really find a 'good' price - too much inventory, nobody wants to part with theirs, nobody wants to make any offers, no sale, no price. That was scary. With the last rate cut, I think we should get stuff moving again. Even if prices go down 10%, it's OK as long as things do move.
I have my own special reason why I am so patiant with the stock. That is absolutely not for anybody.
The SOC thing IMO has not even started. With 0.25um, we'll just get a sample of what it can do. with 0.18um, perhaps US market. At 0.12um, truly world-wide markets.
Been one touchy week until the rate got cut. Off for some R&R, may the Niners kick .ss this weekend. Wish U-all nice weekend.
patrick
PS With regrads to Y2K, I read some forecast by some HP guy I think, he mentioned that HP is forecasting hardware expenditure to go way down after the first half '99. Such is life. Personally, I believe your forecast better. But equipment upgrade will also benefit LSI too - networking, storage etc. |
