CRUS--"Shorta's Paradise" Message Board

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Technology Stocks : CRUS--"Shorta's Paradise"

CRUS 129.74

-1.2%

Nov 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: Gary Burton who wrote (7)	1/1/1997 5:01:00 PM
From: ted quinn	of 44

REPRINTED FROM OTHER THREAD. NOTE CONCERNS ABOUT MANAGEMENT BASED ON 8-YR TREND. Matt, I have revised my CRUS analysis downward. I now have a low possible price of $9.74 with a high possible price of $33.9 for 97, $38.60 for 98, and $44.30 for 99. I adjusted my estimated EPS growth downward to 15% and used a more conservative low price estimate. If I were considering buying some more of the stock my buy price is at $15.75. I am not going to buy anymore until I see some decent numbers due to better revenues and margins. Three things to note: 1. The past 8 yrs %Pre-tax Profit on Sales has had a definite negative trend. 2. The past 8 yrs ROE also has a negative trend. These two items are used on the SSG to evaluate management and it seems they are not doing to well. 3. Institutional ownership is having a real negative trend a. 3/30/96 appx. 48.7% b. 6/30/96 appx. 32.6% c. 9/30/96 appx. 30.0% This may actually be a positive thing in that they have gotten out before the end of the year for one of many possible reasons. They also might be planning to get back in when they see some positive earnings? I do know that if the institutions decide to buy back in the price will go up. Cirrus is big and they do have good products which are competitively priced. I still think this is a good turnaround bet, but the next two quarters will be crucial. I don't have a good feeling about the numbers that are going to be released in January. Lets hope I'm wrong. If the quarter ending in March is below estimates we may be in real trouble. These are just my ideas and with them and $.45 you can get a cup of coffee. There are alot of people on here who know alot more about this than I do. DRC

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