Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (30808)	10/17/1998 3:13:00 AM
From: Paul Angell	Read Replies (1) of 95453

George, More good news. I read this in a research memo from Morgan Stanley. Oil price outlook positive. Supply side catalysts include: Strong OPEC compliance at 90% Output disruptions in US, Russia, Nigeria. Production shortfalls in Iran and Iraq. Other factors: Decline in demand has stabilized. World production to be flat over next 2Q's. Modest decline in 2Q99. Demand predicted to increase on average 2.4mmbpd over next 2 Q's. Consumption expected to exceed supply by 1.5mmbpd in 4Q98 and by 1.5mmbpd in 1Q99. Significant declines expected in inventories. Another OPEC cut of 0.5 - 0.7mmbpd expected and this would eliminate crude supply overhang. Upside to $17/bbl by year end. FY98 average $15.50/bbl. Paul. PS Keep your eye on APC, SII.

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