Rburns,
>>>>>>> it seems so many people are counting on the annual October pullback I'm beginning to think they may be in for a nasty surprise. It's no good just being right in this type of market, you have to be right at the right time. <<<<<<<<<<
I agree that on SI many are looking for the OCT pullback, but I feel that the average investor thinks that the negativity is over. With most of the people I speak to including brokers, the mode right now is to buy not sell. Not one of my friends is selling or have sold.
>>>>>>>>>
Princeton Economics.
One broker told us that out of 350 clients he serves, not one person
wished to move money from the stock market into the safety of a money
market fund. NOT ONE! If you consider yourself contrarian (which of
course everyone does), what does that tell you???
It tells me that the proverbial frog is happy in his jacuzzi even though the temperature has been rising since July 20th, 1998. It will take a lot of pain to cause the average investor to panic. The average
investor,having been long the market for over 3 years, is nowhere near
his pain threshold.
pei-intl.com "(end-of-quote)
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I strongly believe that the SI readership is a more knowledgable as a group than the average investor. The average investor I speak to thinks TECHNICAL ANALYSIS is HOCUS-POKUS/NONSENSE and the FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS is for the ANALYSTS. Many only have a minimal understanding of P/E ratios - they all know what it means but really do not have an understanding of it in relation to markets. What is really surprising is that most of them have much more than a few thousand invested.
So I have to give credit to the SI readership for their understanding of the market, but to use SI readership to judge the overall market, may not be accurate. I believe that those who are looking/take action for the OCTOBER PULLBACK are in the minority. The average investor will worry with ONLY WORDS, but probably not take any action.
I am not looking for the BIG KAHUNA, but since my analysis is saying that the market is OVERBOUGHT now, I will hedge my portfolio with some PUTS next week. If one puts all their money into PUTs next week - well, I would not suggest that.
Seeya |
