Many have discussed the revenue ramp going into '99. This lays out a possible scenario of 65-165 million RDRAM chips in '99, or between 2-5% of the DRAM market. Read on, it gives a good outline of what "might" transpire.
MileHigh
================================
October 19, 1998, Issue: 812
Section: Sourcing
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Direct RDRAM Has Premium
Andrew MacLellan
Special from Electronic Buyers' News -- With chip makers releasing their first Direct Rambus DRAM engineering samples, early industry cost estimates indicate that the emerging architecture is expensive.
Not prohibitively expensive, but costly enough to slightly retard the Direct RDRAM adoption track proposed by the technology's chief backers, Intel Corp., Santa Clara, Calif., and Rambus Inc., Mountain View, Calif. Further blurring the market picture are questions about the chip industry's ability to manufacture enough Direct RDRAM to meet the PC market's needs in 1999, according to Semico Research Corp., Phoenix.
Six vendors are currently shipping 64-Mbit Direct RDRAM engineering samples, with prices from companies such as Mitsubishi Electronics America Inc. and LG Semicon Co. Ltd. set at $45 each. While sample prices are typically several times volume prices, an initial cost projection from leading DRAM vendors reveals that 64-Mbit chips will carry a 15 percent to 30 percent premium in OEM quantities.
With the majority of next year's Direct RDRAM chips shipping in a 64-Mbit density, the premium will keep the device out of all but the most performance-driven PCs, said observers.
While this corresponds to Intel's projections, adoption across the midrange PC segment may not proceed as quickly as it had planned. Given the architecture's cost structure, Direct RDRAM could be sequestered in what Intel has categorized as the professional-class PC segment well into 2000, said analysts.
Only after computer makers begin adopting 128-Mbit DRAM late in 1999 and after the Rambus chip premium drops to about 12 percent, will the midrange segment begin to respond, they said.
The adoption rate should accelerate further when Direct RDRAM premiums dip to about 8 percent with the advent of 256-Mbit chips, according to estimates from one memory supplier.
Rambus said half of its Direct RDRAM licensees in the memory industry will introduce the technology at the 128-Mbit level in 1999, but research firm Dataquest, San Jose, Calif., said that out of next year's 3.3 billion-unit DRAM market, only 24 million 128-Mbit chips will ship.
"We don't think there's a mainstream application driving the larger density," said George Iwanyc, an analyst at Dataquest.
Within the high-performance PC segment-to be served by Intel's Katmai and the K7 chip from new Rambus licensee Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Advanced Micro Devices Inc.-there is disagreement over the industry's ability to make enough Direct RDRAM.
Semico Research has cast a dim light on volume projections, estimating that vendors are equipped to produce a mere 33 million Direct RDRAM ICs in 1999. High-end processors from Intel alone will require between 170 million and 200 million DRAM units, said Sherry Garber, analyst at Semico Research. "You can't get there from here."
An Intel spokesman said the company does not disclose CPU production estimates or related DRAM use.
Rambus countered with its own survey, which revealed a supplier base capable of making 100 million to 200 million units. Dataquest projects that Direct RDRAM will account for 2 percent to 5 percent of next year's DRAM market, or 66 million to 165 million chips.
"We've talked to the DRAM companies and we've added up the volumes they plan to make, and it appears to us to be north of 100 million units," said Subodh Toprani, vice president and general manager of Rambus' logic division, Mountain View, Calif.
Whether the issue is availability, demand or both, chip maker executives agreed that Direct RDRAM volume growth will depend on a tightening of DRAM capacity and a return of control to the hands of memory suppliers.
Electronic Buyers' News is a publication of CMP Media Inc.
---
Adoption Trends: Slow and steady
- Six vendors currently ship 64-Mbit engineering samples.
- Architecture could stall in professional-class PC market well into 2000.
- Midrange segment will start to respond when Rambus chip premium falls to 12 percent.
Copyright ® 1998 CMP Media Inc.
|
