Hi Peter, the 250,000 run rate would start Jan 1. ORCTF should sell around 22-25,000 links in Qtr 4 (20,000 for GTE, 2000 for DT, Telia the rest)
According to the analyst report I read they sold 20000 links to GTE in Qtr 3 and will sell another 20,000 in Qtr 4.
"My question about the press release is "by 1999," do they mean in Q4 as the words mean, or throughout 1999, which the words don't mean."
I'm pretty sure they mean thru '99. The word I like best in the press release is "minimum" they could sell more than 35000.
"ADSL revenues will be $116M."
I think the $467 rev per link figure is too high. I didn't listen to the conf call so I don't know where you got the 5000per mo figure, but if that is what mgmt says then your figure should be used. I was coming up with about $75MM in ADSL rev and $25-35MM for HDSL,VDSL which would get you the $100-110MM mgmt and analyst expects to do in '99.
The first profitable qtr should be 2Q99. The thing we have to look at closely is gross margins in the next 2 qtrs. Q4 should have better GM than Q3 because of the $100 cost savings that is now complete, if they don't go up there is a serious problem. The new chipset will be ready sometime in Q1 so margins should improve again. It might be possible that they report a small profit in Q1 but I doubt it.
Dilution - 1.8MM shares is alot, I didn't even notice this. Where did these shares come from? Options maybe? This is something else to watch out for and can probably explain some of the downward movement in the share price. |
