Hi Haim: My fundamental view of the world is nearly identical to yours. In one of my notes, I admitted that I may have been suckered into a bear market rally. I will be watching this week for that. If I see the market falling apart, I will cash out with nice profits. If we have a weak decline I will add to my long position. I did the same in January.
For me to believe that we turned a corner, several trends will have to be broken in the minor indices soon. The SOX reached an important point and backed off. The TRAN is about 150 points from an important point. The INX is closing in on one. The RUT is about 30 or 40 points away. The movement in the DJI is promising.
I have no idea what will happen on Monday, Tuesday, or any day. However, I expect that my daily reading of the market will keep me out of trouble and in profits. It has done that for 30 years.
Over the past 10 days, I expected a market collapse, realized that my expectations were not occurring, sold my puts for profits at the bottom of the move, identified the next move up for myself, and went long. All of this was posted to this thread. I am prepared to move back into the bear camp within three days if my current expectations do not pan out. Those expectations include a weak or flat reaction to this rally ending by Tuesday or Wednesday and then a further move up. If this does not happen, I will be out of the market waiting for my next read.
Right now all I see is up. However, by 10:30 AM on Monday I could very well be a bear again. At any rate, I am enjoying my new friendships in the barnyard. Being a bear is a lonely existence. |
