Message 6054068
Speak of the devil. George Gilder thinks QUALCOMM's pdQ with a burst rate of 2 Megabit modem won't be all bad in IP!
He said:
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Thanks for the fascinating bandwidth debate in this thread. But I sense a manic depressive oscillation between a belief that bandwidth will be too abundant and cheap (like transistors?) and a belief that it will be effectively scarce because of last mile bottlenecks and regulatory snarls (like DSL).
I think the key is growth in Internet traffic at about 10 fold a year, 1000fold every three years, and a million fold, perhaps, by 2005. Much of the first millionfold rise (from gigabytes per month to petabytes) came on 28.8 modems and crowded T-1 lines. With WDM on land and sea (check out GlobalCrossing for a coming bandwidth colossus), with millions of cable modems from Broadcom and customers, and with Qualcom pdQ phones bearing 2 megabit burst modems in two years (attach your notebook and you have a T1 courtesy of Sprint PCS in Central Park or Park City) and with the telcos facing devastating competition in T1s at last, the technology will keep apace on supply and demand curves three times the Moore's Law rate. At times, supply will surge ahead and prices will plummet, at which point demand will explode. It will be a roller coaster for sure, but that's why we get the big bucks. Right?
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Yes Dave[clone3], The Q's patents also cover applications in IP, with dirty great big wave functions. Orthogonal ones at that.
The pdQ is already shaping up to being a hot product. I hope the plastic doesn't melt, the buttons are joined to the wiring, the connectors are connected, the belt clip isn't the only thing that stays on your belt and the bubblegum holds the chicken wire aerial in position.
Mqurice |
