LG,
TA, and here it is:
For the DOW and SP cash, the markets formed an inverted head and shoulder pattern over the last six months of 1997. They completed a measured move upward this past July at which time there was clear divergence between index prices and the advance decline line of the NYSE.
Both markets sold off to the neckline of that inverted pattern as well as bottomed a nine month cycle in a neat measured move down. Also the pitchfork for both markets shows a clear measured move completed at these lows.
As both markets declined since July, they each formed another inverted head and shoulder pattern, however sloping but I believe still valid, which indicates a measured move just to the old highs.
At that point we'll probably sell off again, but that would keep the up trend well intact and I would suspect the next rally will take out those old highs, probably before the end of the second quarter of 1999.
For the NAZDAQ, if the above actions do occur as described for the DOW and SP indexes, then I suspect that the NAZDAQ is late and has just finished forming the head of its inverted head and shoulder pattern which also projects from the neckline of the head and left shoulder a measured move to its old highs.
Now, I am in no way holding myself out as a forcaster of market moves except to express my single opinion to you since you asked. I make adjustments to my market impressions very frequently, but this is what I'm expecting down the road from what I'm seeing today.
GZ |
