Don,
Certainly consecutively higher highs and lows or lower highs and lows are significant, I don't ignore them, but they're significant only within the context of a trend. I take that for granted and don't see a need to mention that phenomenon in my summations. And trends change within each market cycle.
For the moment, we are seeing higher highs and lows, and even the most major of market tops and bottoms begin with the most modest of indications on the chart.
I agree with you that nothing is written into stone here, and I also agree that the internals need further improvement, but that could happen as this rally continues, if it continues.
If the markets fail this week accompanied by weak internals, then I'll be going short in a heartbeat. Just that, for the moment, I have to be a buyer. I won't guess that the markets will go higher or fail here, I'll just follow my indicators and for now they say stay long.
I did notice the sell off to mid range on the NAZ and SP's, but that means to me that we could sell off from here for some profit taking. It could just as easily move up from Friday and sell off Tuesday and part of Wednesday before the rally continues.
We could also be forming a bear coil in the DOW which would mean a major collapse in that market. Heck, anything could actually be the case, but for the moment here and now, the indicators have turned up, and I'm going with my longer term outlook based on my recent post about inverted head and shoulder patterns until those patterns fail.
Over the next couple of days, we'll see what the markets really want to do.
Later...
GZ |
