[adsl figuring]
hi daniel,
fwiw.. have played with your figures a little and am inclined to think that the analyst attributing 20,000 lines to gte alone in q3 was exagerating a bit...
at the time of the gte/fujitsu/orctf announcement, one number floating around was $330/line... this seems to work a little better than the $315:
to get 35% gross margins with $330/line gives a cost of about $215 (330x.65).. adding $260 per line savings to come... gets to a cost of around $475/line for q3... or a loss/ line of $145 (330-475)
we know that adsl revenues for q3 were $7.4 million... $7,400,000 / 475 = 15580 lines (nominally)... in line with the 5000 lines/month mentioned in the cc...
backing into the numbers from the other direction: orctf sold $5.6 million of hdsl in q3... say at 35% gross margins = nominally $2 million gross profit... there were other revenues of $600,000 unaccounted for by either adsl or hdsl... say this was vdsl and ultracom... @ 50% gross margins (wild guess) = $300,000 gross profit... as gross profit for q3 was essentially zero (other+hdsl+adsl), we have nominally $2,300,000 to offset all losses in adsl...
in general terms, if in q3 orctf had shipped 15,580 lines (on which they lost money) this would mean they were "only" losing about $148 /line (2,300,000/15580).. not too far off the magic number of $145 loss/ line from the original assumption
would be interested in your take on the numbers for q4 and q1 99 .. and will be more than happy to help out ... tho to sort these upcoming quarters out it's probably going to take more than a little effort (and more detail) as i can tell right now that expected losses (worse bottom line than this qtr) are much greater than my math on cost per line with cost savings would seem to indicate.. then again maybe i've got something backwards?.. and/or all those messy details not factored come into play?.. or new chip is even more important and other cost savings less so? etc etc
any thoughts?
s |
