Ken: Okay, I'll bite. What's so special about Nov. 16th? ;-) As for competitive technology worries......I'm not all that concerned about them since, as we've seen with VLNC, it's a looooong way from experimental proto-types to fully functional mass manufacturing capability. But don't think for a moment that I'm not constantly out there looking at new technological possibilities. Ya gotta stay alert, eh?
The only one's I'd be concerned about is the Asian community, specifically the Japanese. However, I'm beginning to think IF VLNC can get their manufacturing base up and operational they can then drive those infamous manufacturing cost points downward making it hard for anyone to compete PROFITABLY and thus giving themselves a prime foothold in the sector. It's that old logic of "He who arrives firstest with the mostest, WINS!!" So why worry about Asia which has shot itself in the economic foot?
The answer is short term you shouldn't. The Japanese, to a certain real extent, expanded their industrial base on the backs of cheapie bank loans and crony capitalism.....indeed, they could flood a market sector with product without any real regard for profitability(the term predatory pricing comes to mind). This formed the basis of the Japanese wunderkin 1970/80's economic model. Don't get me wrong however, they did innovate marvelously(GM can attest to that), and took advantage of technological leaps the U.S. was slow to recognize(the transistor being but ONE example). But today, Japan is staggering under ~1 Trillion in debt, and is having to deal with an economic situation about as close to depression levels as anyone in this world has seen in the last 60 years. So me thinks their industrial base is gonna suffer somewhat, eh?
This is not to make light of their power, since one can never discount them. And with the sheer size of the market sector precluding it from being monopolized by any one manufacturer.....well.....I'm sure they will have their wedge entry point. But IF all is as indicated by the underground with regard to VLNC, then the next couple of years is VLNC's to lose. So let's see how it goes....
John~ |
