Equinox Systems (EQNX) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Equinox Systems (EQNX)

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To: Scott H. Davis who wrote (633)	10/19/1998 11:46:00 AM
From: Pirate	Read Replies (1) of 765

Here's my analysis of the numbers, with some forward predictions based on the limited info provided in this earnings release: (BTW - did anyone notice they beat the street by .02?) EPS to date: 0.59 Q4 Projected (currently): 0.20 Estimated for the year: 0.79, - a PE of 10.75 today. The Q4 estimates are low, watch for them to change soon. Two(?) new analysts picking up coverage... EQNX has historically beaten the previous year's quarter. In this release the CEO talks about the new product "contributing significantly to revenue". He also says that "the outlook for continued growth in [the existing channels] is good". He further states that they will be adding a major private label OEM customer soon (I believe that to be imminent). Assume that existing revenue continues as projected and Q4 is at least $8.2M in Q4 (same as Q4 of last year). Assume further that this new product (currently shipping - Tech Data shows a backlog of 20 units) contributes another $500k in revenue for the quarter. Further that the new OEM takes $500k worth of product (why else do a private label deal?) [mix/match $$$ any way you want - I predict an additional $1M in new business due to these two events]. That means Q4 could reach $9.2M! With 15% net, that means EPS of $0.85 for the year - assuming 5.2M shares outstanding (I'll bet they start buying stock back again though). At an EPS of .85, and a PE of 20 we could have a $17 stock.... Not unreasonable? Conservative?

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