Mark, I've been screwed so my times in suckers rallies, that I am long past guessing when it's a good time to get into the industry. I do know that a few years from now all of the DUV companies will be looked back upon as having been steals now. So if you have a long enough horizon, now is as good a time as any.
I suspect that Cymer is going to move much faster than the other DUV companies, just because it is smaller, with a smaller float and bigger short interest. There are a lot of people out there like me and my family and friends who have removed a good bit of the float over the last few months. (My dad bought 10,000 more Friday at 9 1/2.) All told, I, my girlfriend, and my father own 35,000 shares which is more than 1/10 of 1% of the company. Several of my friends also own a healthy amount. My point is this. Once this baby starts to move, it's going to take off, since there aren't that many shares available. It may retest it's lows, or go even lower (in which case my margin will be obliterated), but I have the intestinal fortitude to hang in there. I know that I can't call the bottom, but it doesn't matter, since in the long run I will be well rewarded.
It seems to me that this could be the bottom. Micron is moving up their process roadmap, and Samsung doesn't want to be left behind. Eventually Asia will work itself out and its demand will pick up. But by then the easy money will have been made, CYMI will be at 100 and moving north.
BTW, maybe the big move has started. Current bid is 10 1/4, and we're up from 6 3/4 7 trading days ago.
Go Baby Go.
Jay |
