Shane: Let's set aside the fact that you didn't even remotely justify your assumptions that LSI will experience 20% year over year growth for three years. Let's just address your response to my post. The oldest fab is being closed due to lack of capacity. The fab would have been kept running for a longer time period were it not for the fact that LSI has overcapacity in the current market. It is that simple. So it isn't worth garbage as you write unless it's in an overcapacity environment. That is what management says, not me. You evade the fact that R&D is being cut by 20%. Yes, current and/or recent R&D has developed a lot of current and future design wins, but what concerns me is the future design wins that will not occur, simply because of the dramatic cutback in R&D.
Your “crap” thing isn't valid not because of double counting, but rather because of the fact that even your “crap” scenario is predicated on the most optimistic growth in the chip business. As such, your entire prediction of the stock hitting “on average” five times its current price in just three years is just that—crap. Now, what will happen is that the stock will triple or surely double from its current price during the first year of the next upcycle in semis, but that is a phenomenon that has long been observed in the chip industry. Accordingly, I am sure that I will at least break even on my purchase prices, which average 23 and change. But for someone who prior to January this year traded for five years, that is a terrible waste of money. And since, I began trading in late August, I can assure you that my LSI will be my tax loss specialist this year, although I could only pray to make enough profits to sell all of my LSI shares. You also make the assumption that if one challenges your wild eyed assumptions, that somehow I am anti company or anti semi growth. No, to the contrary, l believe that you are often doing a disservice by providing what appears to be detailed analysis on LSI, which if one looks at it is facile and in some instances just not accurate. Simply put, a less than ebullient analysis that reflects management's optimistic outlook but falls far short of yours is not whining, and surely does not need your remonstration to “sell and be done with it”, but rather begs for more intelligent analysis of which, you are surely capable.
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