INDEX UPDATE
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Overall the market is showing some strength. The RUT is doing well which is implying that money is spreading around, and that this rally is more broadbased than those in the recent past.
The NEW HIGHs is low, but is higher than the NEW LOWs, so that is sign of slight improvement, but too early to say anything conclusive.
The BKX is now testing its previous peak, but the XAL and TRAN and many other indexes are still below their earlier peaks.
I feel comfortable to say that we are in a RANGE TRADING TREND.
We are now near the short-term TOP(1-5 days). For specificly today there are some signs of slight weakness which could be confirming the topping out process. The OEX has been flat to negative, and is diverging to the downside from the DOW.
As indicated previously the immediate forthcoming dip should not be large, and could only be intraday - and is not tradable to the downside, and could start as early as today into tomorrow. Thereafter the market should bounce again and retest the HIGHs, which I believe may be todays highs. If the short-term HIGHs hold then the next downswing should be larger and could start WED/THU/FRI of this week. If the bounce breaks the very short-term highs(probably todays highs), then we should head to the 8600-8700 range. So far, todays highs is 8498.
It appears that the VIX is establishing a new trading range with the next 2 main supports at 31-32, then 28. The VIX got as low as 33.3 today, so with the VIX, we are very close to a SELL SIGNAL. Keep in mind that the VIX was recently as high as 61.
As Im typing the DOW is now only at 14, so it has already sold off 60 points off of the intradays highs.
seeya |
