Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: paul feldman who wrote (30893)	10/19/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Paul; FLC/CDG... also; the time for selling puts here has arrived ! Paul; in my personal opinion - I would leave any type of ''arb'' play to the pro's; such as going long CDG and shorting FLC; which is done on a lot of buyouts... probably on NBR/BDI today... Not that I am assuming you are doing this however. I would simply buy FLC in a series of 3 or 4 buys on any dips. Maybe the first buy on any weakness here -$10-11; 2nd buy on a dip under $10, 3rd buy at $8 or under and save the last buy for a nightmare or buying more - back on the way up... just my opinion. I think FLC will get more buying activity here from the funds and individual investors versus CDG. I love FLC from $9-11 here. The PE is high because of FLC high leverage/debt & merger charges and it has high upside EPS growth due to its newbuilds of Deepwater Rigs/Drillships coming online with contracts allready in place. See the recent FLC news releases - very positive imho.3 year project with Vastar, Conoco has a 5 year deal with the ''Pathfinder'' and Petrobras a 30 month to 6 year deal on ther ''Seillean''... future is bright for FLC imho. I think if crude keeps trending down; selling puts may be the play here. Good premium income or buying down from here with the premium discount applied to these prices. **** SLB & HAL basically held flat with 4-5 Million Shares traded - good news imho. Ron rallied well as did VTS and many others. The action on crude prices and the sell down this mid day on the anniversary of ''Black Monday of 1987'' got me thinking... smelling some manipulation here... On CNBC this early a.m. one of the reporters mentioned the expectation for crude to spike today.... fundamentally it should have - no major releases today on over supply etc. 2 major pipeline explosions and crude falls .60 cents ???? I see traders shorting heavy on the rally in this sector expectedly but perhaps some were - Short Crude & Long OSX ? - this could scare the small frys out - they short crude down sharpy while simultaneous going long the patch.... would explain some of the action this afternoon ??? ....just pontificating... I'm smelling a Rat in the Crude Oil trading...anyone else seeing strange things in the crude oil trading ? ...maybe LTC was short the OSX & Long Crude - undwinding it was to go long the OSX and short crude ? <VBG> ....

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