Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (14676)	10/19/1998 4:34:00 PM
From: space cadet	Read Replies (4) of 18691

Does anybody on this thread still think that we will have a correction or crash anytime soon. Right now the tech market appears to be in its normal earnings season rally mode. I suspect that after earnings season is over in a couple of weeks or so, we may get a brief correction, maybe retesting 8000. However I don't see any real serious correction till the normal 6 months from the last correction, which would be in the march-april time frame. It certainly appears that the market has faced its worst fears and beaten them. I don't think we will see so intense a correction as we saw in aug-oct. The market seems amazingly calm and resilient and bullish again these days. Looks like we will have to go back to finding the sick and the wounded for shorting as the bear phase has decisively ended. It looks like we could still hit 12K by y2k without much trouble. Now that the market has dealt with the previously mentioned troubles what if anything is the new bear case? Incidentally it looks like we need to consign Jerry Favors to the absurd cartoonish bears along with Fleckenstein et al. He made a good call earlier this year predicting 7400 but then has been incorrectly bearish since then. I really really regret listening to him, as I missed out on this amazing rally. His 15 minutes of fame are just about up. He is now telling subscribers to prepare to go long soon. Way way too late. Pretty pathetic, actually. It's the typical story, someone makes a great call, and then he gets famous, lots of people listen to him, and he makes the worst call of his life. Oh well, I should have known better.

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