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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Jan Robert Wolansky who wrote (30628)10/19/1998 5:02:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH  Read Replies (4) of 94695
 
Jan,

I believe the crash phase is over, and last Wednesday's lows marked the end of the smaller 5 wave move down that began on 9/25, and the large 5 wave move down than began on 7/20, which I believe was the 1st of 5 waves of A. We're having a wave 2 of A rally now that will span 50 to 75% retracement back up to the 7/20 high. Looks like we hit the 50% retracement level on SPX at today's high.

I Expect alot of sideways action from here for the next month or two with much less volatility. If wave 1 of A took 2.7 months to complete, wave 2 of A should take from 1 to 3 months to complete. It'll be a daytraders market instead of position player's for the next little while, I do believe.

I'll be going long on dips, and will daytrade both ways. Will keep positions long in Gold and gold mining though, as I believe we've entered a bull phase that could take us to 320 on gold in the next couple weeks.

I wish I could have been more helpful to myself and others in catching the bottom, but reality's unfolding didn't line up with my preferred read.

Regards,

David

P.S. For comparisons sake, I would say we're at a point correlating with the late November Peak in the '29 chart.

geocities.com

This entails a month or two of sideways action with an upward drift, before the real bear begins next year.
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