I have been following Apple's news for about a year. The stock has
been gradually going down from last quarter's report either by
rumors or speculations intentionally or without any purposes.
There is one thing that I tried to figure out - next quarter report
due around Jan. 15, 1997.
Based on my calculation, this quarter should be a lot better than
previous one. The following is my calculation:
Apple said it has sold around 4 million units during 1996, and in
first three quarters of 1996, it has sold 932,000 or less in each
quarter, which means the fourth quarter of 96 (Apple's Q1) should
sell 1.2 millions units unless my interpretation was wrong.
Therefore, the sale volume is still increasing which means Apple's
still on the rise. It is too difficult to predict entire 97's
total sale amount especially in this special year for Apple.
Apple's strong spots in international market are in Japan and France.
Japan's market accounts for more than 2 billions dollars per year,
while France has about half of Japan's. German's market is catching
up recently. Apple has tried their best to enter relatively new
market, such as China, which will represent a significant market
share later on silimar to Japan's.
Over all, based on Apple's P/S ratio as well as its getting back to
to positive earning last quarter - I believe Apple should have a
strong comeback in '97. |
