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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: John Wu who wrote (926)1/2/1997 5:38:00 PM
From: John Howell   of 13594
 
John,

Sincere thanks for the in-depth response and for your y2k recommendations.

I called my brokers and both of them are having difficulty filling ZITL shorts, so I may indeed try shorting some of your other recommendations. I'll being doing quite a bit of research over the next few days on the whole y2k issue trying to determine who are the weakest/most-hyped players in the sector.

By the way, did you see the y2k piece on Dateline last night? They were capping the y2k market over the next 4 years at 600 billion for the private sector and 30 billion for the government sector. My gut feeling is that this figure is absurdly inflated. I worked in the aerospace industry for 7 years writing code for MIS Systems. Changing software to handle 4 charaters instead of 2 doesn't require the implementation of a lot of additional logic. In short, it's easy to do. Also, I think that most private companies have already fixed their problems or have mapped out cost effective solutions that can be implemented over the next three years.

If my assumption is correct that the potential for companies touting y2k solutions is being overstated, then the weak swimmers in this sector are dead ringers as long term short plays. I'll be doing my TA over the next couple of days trying to identify the best plays.

One last thing, add UCMP to your list of y2k's to investigate.

Happy trading,

John
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