I will post more later, but Abbot had a meeting a few days ago with physicians, activists etc from many countries to discuss the problem they are having in producing Ritonavir capsules. Abbot now says they cannot produce any more Ritonavir capsules, which they now refer to as Form I. They are working on a replacement, Form II, a soft elastic capsule for Ritonavir, but it has to go through clinical trials and be approved by the FDA. It is not possible to say when it will be approved, but maybe in 6 months. So until further notice, the foul tasting liquid Ritonavir will be the only Abbot protease inhibitor available, except for those who still have some of remaining capsules. Many places have run out.
I see that one of the new posters to SI just became a member of SI on October 5th 1998. How interesting.
I am not aware of any concerns that McCamant has. Even if he does, which I doubt, he is not one of the analysts whose estimates are included in First Call estimates or Zacks estimates.
Elise Wang, a PW broker, has a great track record at predicting Agouron's earnings to the penny, and she is confident in her numbers, which are above consensus at $0.21.
The stock drop on Friday was due to a rumor, not to an analyst making comments. Robertson Stephens did not say that Agouron would miss earnings. BancBoston Robertson-Stephens has a Buy on Agouron, and there are several very credible analysts at RS: Jay Silverman and Mike King.
The notion that it was RS came from a broker speculating, not an analyst,
No one knows who made the comments, if they were really made.
The shorts at work....yawn....…..
Anyone can post whatever whisper number they want, at those sites. They are for shorts and gullible people who can't seem to find the real analyst estimates from First Call or Zacks. I could post whatever numbers I picked out of a hat at some of those sites.
Some use this opportunity to post ridiculously low numbers to try to raise some fear, others post ridiculously high numbers, to try to get the company to miss estimates. Apparently there is one analyst this quarter with an estimate of $0.41 cents, twenty cents higher than any other analyst.
It is so ridiculously high that First Call does not even include it in their consensus estimate for Agouron. Zacks does include it.
First Call has a mean estimate of $0.17, with a range of .08 to .21, from 10 brokers.
Zack's has a mean estimate of $0.20, with a range of .08 to .41, with nine brokers.
That estimate of $0.41 adds 3 cents to the Zacks estimate.
Without the $0.41, First Call and Zacks estimates are the same, at $0.17.
I wonder who the analyst is with the estimate of $0.41?
And I wonder who supplied the whisper number of $0.05 or $0.04.
I'm sure we'll never know.
Agouron continues to maintain #1 market share in the protease inhibitor market in the United States and now in Europe. Agouron has shown continued month-to-month growth in prescription data almost since approval, in March 1997. The total HIV market, including the protease inhibitor market, is expanding as well, estimated to be several billion dollars, I think. |
