>> I'm always willing to hear the down side. Could you be specific?<<
Okay Pat, here are my concerns:
1. xDSL technology is not implemented by the major players (read large carriers for significant sales) at all or not until late 1998 or beyond. That ties up investment dollars into something that is not performing. Amati and all xDSL companies require the carriers to implement this technology in order to make sales. The carriers have lots of concerns right now with deregulation. xDSL may not see real funding money for widescale deployment for a long time. The carriers must carefully consider the best use of money right now. xDSL may not be the best use.
2. xDSL is implemented through CAP. Say what you want, but the first large trials and actual small service offerings are CAP based. (This is why I have hedged my Amati stock by purchasing Westell)
3. Amati's version of DMT is not the popular choice. Aware has already been announced with Ascend and PairGain, both major players in the Internet and carrier industry, respectively.
4. Amati does not sell product, only rights to use their DMT technology. How much profit can that really net them? This may be one of my largest concerns. I have friends in the industry developing ADSL product, and the price points they hope to release product with at volume one quantity would blow away anything out there right now - and they do not work at fly by night small companies, but ones everybody knows. I cannot be more specific than this, I consider the information told to me to be confidential. But it does concern me - I do own lots of AMTX stock.
5. Cable wins over xDSL.
Pat, I know all the positives for Amati - the partnerships, the leading edge technology, the potential of ADSL, the potential of a lucrative buyout, etc... This is why I own the stock. However, I also am not blind to the downsides listed, and nor should anyone else be.
Mike |
