A post that I actually agree with tech about.... at least most of it:
Short covering is initiated by Fear.
_Tech__
(34/M/Denver, Co.)
Oct 20 1998 3:21PM EDT
and when there is simply no fear.. there is no reason to cover.
this 'fear' has to be established by the company itself and come down the shoot directly from the management.
ALYD has had several chances to establish some fear in the marketplace for those who are short, however each one of these attempt has been half hearted and as such have had little effect.
The first attempt was when Gruder announced he was going to buy stock. Insider buying is always a key way to establish a bottom for a stock and send some fear to those who are short. However when a CEO states he feels the stock undervalued at present levels ~ approx. $9.50 ~ and then fails to buy a single share in the following two months even as the stock falls under $6.00, the shorts not only don't see a reason to cover.... they see a reason to hold on.
Furthermore, ALYD's post y2k strategy was suppose to be this big event that was going to come in with a bang! and change everything..... Well, it came in with more of a pop with little or no information that would help establish revenue flows to the company and when they would start seeing it.
Keys to making shorts cover.
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#1. Establish a policy of do what I say when I say it. - More specifically, Bob Gruder MUST take the first step to follow through on what he says. You talk softly and carry a big stick, you don't talk big and carry a twig. The markets, and especially the shorts, will hand you your hat if they see that is your M.O.
#2. To retain a higher multiple, and more importantly to keep it, you need to establish a real post y2k strategy that includes concise information on revenue projections, how large the market place is and your ability to compete in it, and projections on how and when these revenues will flow in. This strategy must NOT come out in drips and drabs, but must be presented with full force and establish the company as technology company that has a y2k solution as one of thier products, not a Y2k company that has some other technology as a product.
#3. Market awareness and institutional support is imperative. However, the only way the company can do this is to make sure #'s 1 & 2 are taken care of. The company needs to establish a dialogue with analysts as well as institutional investors and have a investment banking firm advising them on strategies to increase their growth through acquisitions and mergers.
these are just a few things needed to put some 'fear' into the shorts. Even if Q3 numbers come in line with some of the expectations I have posted... they still need to do all the above to keep the shorts from having yet another field day.
tech |
