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Technology Stocks : Computer Associates

CA 25.01

0.0%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: rupert1 who wrote (2990)	10/20/1998 6:51:00 PM
From: Edwarda	Read Replies (1) of 5232

O.K., I'll give it a shot. We'll know more tomorrow morning when the company talks about results with the financial community. Just on the surface, the First Call consensus was 48 cents, as you know. Obviously, the share repurchase helped. What will be worthwhile knowing and released tomorrow is revenues broken down by geographies and by platform. Remember that the cautions re the future concerned mainframe software, not Unicenter. They were prompted by feedback from large multinational customers who were themselves uneasy about the potential effects on their revenues from the "Asian contagion" and maybe a global economic slowing, if not a recession, and on their IT costs from Y2K remediation efforts. Note that today SAP specifically noted the effects of Y2K remediation on the demand cycle--not only in the release but more definitely in the conference call. They don't expect attention to return to other IT projects until the end of the first half of next year. I like the stock long term and look to tomorrow to provide more data points. Does anyone out there have a sense of how much of the surprise may have been in mainframe software?

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