America On-Line: will it survive ...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: Todd Daniels who wrote (882)	1/2/1997 10:06:00 PM
From: Todd Daniels	of 13594

I don't get it. Today, CompUSA was clocked 22% on report of essentially flat same store sales. That's the latest of a rash of data over the past three weeks confirming projections of significant slowdown in home PC sales to growth rates less than half of those during '92-95. Worse, increasing percentage of the sales are replacement/upgrade. Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Assn says installed base growth rate now no more than 4%, and projects same for '97. Yet online stocks dependent upon consumers for subscriptions AND/OR eyeballs for ads and shopping continue to trade just on their own news. AOL is one. CNWK is another. Up 35% since WSJ puff piece last week. YHOO, XCIT, LCOS, SEEK,....the list goes on and on, all trading oblivious. Ditto the flood of new year `forecasts' of growth of online subscribers, online advertising, etc. etc. All presume uninterrupted continuation of hockey sticks. It doesn't happen that way in real life. Witness the PC sales slumps of '85-6 and '90-91. Contemplate the food chain impacted by a plateau in growth of home PC sales............ Meanwhile, within 30 minutes of CPU's announcement, Goldman downgraded it; but not its 12/17 buy ratings for AOL and YHOO.

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