SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 230.17-1.5%3:59 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Big Bucks who wrote (25538)10/20/1998 8:13:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
BB: There is a fair chance that the Sept. numbers will be revised downwards IMO. These numbers are a three month moving average and so there is a bias with the prevailing trend. We first learned that orders were went off a cliff sometime in June via various industry articles. So it is not surprising that September numbers sucked. But I was surprised on how much they sucked. It is time to get some historical buffs to weigh in on when we last saw this level of bookings. Wowser. Boy, would I sure like to see the monthly breakdown to get a better picture of what is going on here.

There comes a time in the cycle where we, as individual investors, are in the dark on the prevailing trend. Analysts have industry contacts and they can evaluate and make better guesses as to what is going on in the industry. Stock prices in this sector can then rise without any corresponding improvement in bookings. We saw this in September 1996 until November 1996. The October 1996 BtB report as delivered in November showed an uptick in bookings confirming an upward trend. But by that time AMAT had risen about 50% from its lows. Are we in such a time period now? I don't know for sure but as the risk/reward equation changed today, I took some profits in NVLS. But as this dry spell goes on goes on at this amazing rate of decline, the more I am likely to support a "V" shaped recovery thesis whereas before I was in the "U" camp. One thing is for sure: we are closer to a recovery now than we were three months ago : ).
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News