Cents, I think the bullishness is coming from the "urgency" of Greenspan response and the fact that the street believes that two sequential easing moves by the FED's signal the end of bear moves (the rationale being that the FED's will be doing what is necessary to avoid a recession).
Short term, however, I view today's action as negative, with a bunch of short term indicators turning quite bearish. We went from +1350 or so in the tick to close to -1000. The first is an extreme on its own (the highest on this rally so far), and the reversal looked "panicky" again. So, I expect retesting at least the 7800 before we see a resumption of the bull. Medium term, (till about mid to end of January) I think that the fed's will have their impact on quieting the markets, and still expect a "year end rally. I think they (the FED's) might even move again come November 17 (and speculations to this effect will, I believe, cause a better tone in the market early in November after the election). I for one, took a lot of stuff off the table, including some I recommended just recently, like XIRC (immediately after touching a new high), ASND, HAUP, and even some of my WFR (but I plan getting back into this one) and few other.
Good luck everyone, I think the sea is getting rough for a week or two again (was not 8600 or so a 61% Fibonacci retracement?)
Zeev |
