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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP
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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (729)10/20/1998 8:54:00 PM
From: George Gilder  Read Replies (1) of 5853
 
You are probably right in the short run; thank you for the cautionary words. I wish they had come a week or so earlier when I was busy removing Tellabs from my list. I believe that the backbones can all go WDM, with the ADMs reduced increasingly to passive optical filters at a collective savings of millions, relegating the SONET frames ever nearer the edges of the network where they will become as otiose as the first D in DWDM, as fast, cheap IP routers soon suffice. In Clayton Christensen's useful terms, I think WDM is a truly disruptive technology that will transform networks, while these Nortel and Tellabs SONET kludges represent a sustaining compromise that will give these companies ever higher margins until the very moment that they crash like Digital Equipment did in the mid 1980s.
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