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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 210.32-5.6%Feb 6 9:30 AM EST
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To: H James Morris who wrote (22381)10/20/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: JBL  Read Replies (1) of 164685
 
You have to look at the big picture to see where this market is going, and it really is a no brainer.

- Banks are tightening credit drastically in all emerging markets, and quite significantly in many industrialized nations.

- IMF money is only disbursed if combined with austerity measures. (This means countries like Brazil will be in a severe recession in 1999).

- US exports will show a considerable decline in October, and the trade deficit will become politically unbearable by early next year.

- The Asian crisis will get worse before it gets better as Japan tries to clean up of its banking sector.

Greenspan reacted to a rapidly worsening situation, and the best scenario is a soft landing for the US economy, which still means that the Dow will be way below its current level.

How bad the situation becomes really now depends mostly on how Japan deals with the crisis. My guess is that it won't do very well.

Yesterday, the vice minister of finance in Tokyo was quoted saying that the situation had become so critical that Malaysia may have been right to impose capital control measures a few weeks ago... This should be a huge red flag for Wall Street, but people there have been to busy looking at the charts and taking comfort at how the technicals really look bullish.


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