Carl, I do not think that VEBA will be happy with them using money ("floating money"?) they just loaned them to buy back shares. I for one would suggest that this rally is coming to a short term end here, and traders should take some profits. Right now I would say there is a good chance to see the low 6' again, and if the SOX rally is a fake, even lower. On one hand, the double FED move is a good sign, but the technicals have turned down and there is a danger, IMHO, that a retreat just under 8000 could be here. I am also looking at the equip BTB ratio which is still in free fall, reaching a ghastly .57, down from .65. Under "normal circumstances, I would say "How much lower can it go?", thus "calling" it a cyclical through, but these are not "normal" circumstances, a big chunk of overcapacity is still overhanging the market, and I am afraid that the recent pick up in chip's sale is related to the coming Christmas season, and not yet the bottoming in the segment. I thought that the semi would bottom late in October, for quite sometime (this was the scenario suggested last November), now that we are here, I have a little nagging feeling in my stomach. But then, without a "wall of worry" we have no bull markets, right?
Zeev |
