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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 254.72

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Dec 1 3:59 PM EST

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To: john dodson who wrote (25555)	10/21/1998 12:44:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) of 70976

john/all, [edited] "Is the bear market over already?" cbs.marketwatch.com That was a short one. <G> excerpt So is the Bear Market of 98 already over? Alex Trzesniewski, who writes his weekly Market Illustrations for Credit Suisse/First Boston, thinks so. He starts off by suggesting that it might not feel as if this period of market unpleasantness has lasted long enough, despite the fact that the S&P 500 did retreat 22 percent from its highs, the Russell 2000, 38 percent from its high, and financial stocks some 36 percent. But that feeling, he says, is wrong. What has really happened is that we've encapsulated a bear market cycle in just the past couple of months. He then goes on to say this: "The last two full-fledged bear markets were 1987 and 1990. The 1987 bear lasted from August to October with most of the damage done in the 10 fateful days that culminated in the crash whose 11th anniversary we note this week. The 1990 bear market went from August to October as well, with the damage there being much less severe than 1987. "It is worth remembering that at those bottoms the lunatic fringe of doomsayers were also out in force looking for a calamity that would not only justify the drop of prices that had already occurred, but would justify another huge drop." G.

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