Kevin-- Ross had picked a line from Jerry Favors on rate cut and market testing new lows, you very nicely added a word on naivity of Gurus, can I ask Jerry Favors how many times in last 100 years Fed came out and cut rates when unemployment was as low as 4.6%, never never this is IT related new paradigm of economy which was being derided by likes of Krugman and others but rate cuts and low unemployment is the death of Phillip curve.
I wrote about it a year ago PREDICTING a breakdown in immediate terms of the relationship between unemployment and interest rates this is a basic fundamental shift and no one is pointing it out- what happened? I wish other than charts this Jeryy guy would look at sea change happening in policy of macro economics management.
I tell you they are not naive this particular state of mind just exists, 'married to your skewed thinking' some of these Guys have been shorting BKX at 690 last time around after 28th Oct, he went on to short market after a big move from 1475 level on composite as it rebounded off its 200 days average to hit 2000 his whole record is predominantly short biased I have no problems with it but I have problem with claims of 'intellectual academics' I think to base one's claims on basis of a theory which just does not exisit scientefically is 'intellectual dishonesty' -- for a balance character like me who explains his logic and working of my mind to the last stop and immediate commas it is something plain rubbish and I don't mind pointing it out. Since I take an opposite position and more than ever I happen to be right so far.. until DOW and SPZ stays above 1000.
They took no lessons and were issuing calls to sell at 1320 on composite either they has nevr bought a share in their life which I think is fact or they were not lookng at the market or the bond break, what hurts me the most that assumption of a role and projections of fake theories which have no scientefic basis is just easily sold to people who could have profitted from this great move in last six sessions.
. I on the other hand have been working my trades down from break of 1198, the reason being that for me I could see that world is not falling apart, I could see that there is no deflation, I could see that bonds will crash and I could see that Japan will turn around as they have the muscle to address the banking problems moreover look back at my posts I told them this is going to be settled by earnings, on Russia I was clear that issues will be resolved on peg of China I was emphatic that we will see thru the peg on Yen strength I posted that 155 and we break rather AG and Rubin would do it in a manner without spending a penny from coffers of US treasuries, on LATAM I was writing don't short, on $ weakening I was first to highlight and position my self in ASEA, I added on rather to old positions, I don't just sell my core rasther I work my way as we go down I just checked on my computer during last two months I made 72 short side trades and only 24 long side trades on option index out of this my record was 93% on both the long and short- with that kind of record I just think to accuse me from a certain camp is unfair I am just a realist, the thread gives a very lonely look but it is not so and some of these guys thinking that Ike has lost his touch do take chances only to see that market revenge is the best offence.
So for me I am the worst kind of bear in right circumstances, I was clearly able to go thru the break of BKX 600 and 1498 break with lot of puts and luckily got out of them at a rebound of 1320 composite as bonds broke, my story ties up it has climaxes and downturns but it all stacks up together, I trade within bands and have no way to know the future accept with the help of my fundamental reading if they show me that all these breaks are artificial I will defend my fort and that exactly what I do , on one hand I will write that market fundamentals are intact and we can roar back anytime on the other I will say if it breaks 1498 we go to 850 this is the difference as I keep myself nimble to take oportunity from picking up the pieces from the lows, this was 28th July 96 28th Oct 97 and may be 1320 was one of these incidents where our accounts just get too fat.. buying Noka Dell CCI at those cut prices is an ability which was denied to many a firends on SI and I just don't like those guys who cannot do it themselves but thru their chartalnistic attitude stop thers to do it but my computer record of their trades is one hell of a evidence dated shorts and consequent moves show me that this is poverty bought...
like I was first to announce rate cuts and not hikes when everyone was fearing inflation and WSJ was writing stories on potential one meember of FOMC board leaning on side of tightening- this is al recorded all stacked up together-- who else has such a record on macro ecobnomic rewading as well as tying it up with actual trades.. They still cal me a bull rather I am a trader with good abilities and I ahve certainly improved as my time spent on SI is well worth - writng my script taking abuse makes me lethat in my trading, I just bark buy hundred puts buy 50 calls I was not so good beofre the abuses, the pin drop silence but huge following I have is only because I am original and a confirmed maverick I think I thrive when these bloddo hounds descend on me for me I have to live here with my talent otherwise the hearts are tooo shallow they pick me up because I my name just dosen't sound normal- therefor it is Ike for US......gggggggg I am outnumbered out flanked and I don't take my fights to any other thread but my own thread is enough to let them know I know you guys and I know you well-- |
