Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 226.05

+1.3%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Big Bucks who wrote (25156)	10/21/1998 4:58:00 AM
From: klaus pluszynski	Read Replies (1) of 70976

All, I think that an earnings warning from AMAT is highly likely during the next weeks. Please correct me, if my reasoning is wrong. Here's why: Historically, AMAT revenues are quite closely related to orders reported by SEMI. Their stated revs. had been at +/-30% of the reported SEMI order numbers during the last years. Semi reported less than $500 mil. in orders for September. Taking the moving average mechanism into account, this means a total of $1.5 bln in orders were received from July to September by all the US semi eq. mfgs. That would put AMAT's share of the bookings (and revenues) at roughly $500 mil. and therefore way below their stated breakeven of $600 mil. Comments? Klaus

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