Doug,
I agree completely with your comments. If my memory serves me correctly, the same type of warnings were given by rogue analysts towards the end of last quarter. USRX went on to make their numbers. The bottom line is that the fundamentals have not changed. I also have to seriously question the judgement of someone who would completely reverse their position based on ....on...well, on nothing really. Just a few words from another pundit. I didn't hear any analyst(s) reduce their 1997 EPS estimates, did you??
For what it's worth I do have a report from one Best Buy (obviously not a signficant sample size). About two weeks before Christmas our local Best Buy had mountains (I mean huge mutiple piles/stacks) of USRX modems. They also had a fair amount of the usual suspects (i.e. ZOOM, Motorola, Cardinal, etc.). When I saw the disproportional number of USRX modems I got concerned that perhaps USRX was going to end up with a bunch of channel inventory. Well, a few days after Christmas when I was buying a second ZIP drive, I checked out the modem section. I was floored!!!! There were only 10-20 USRX modems left. I honestly couldn't believe my eyes. In sharp contrast I couldn't notice any reduction in the number of the other modems (shelves still full). This may be an isolated case but damn it was amazing to witness. I know of at least one Best Buy that will be ordering more USRX modems very soon. No excess Christmas inventory here.
Good luck to all,
FF |
