News from Pat at Interop N+I
To: Frank Ferrari (305 )
From: pat mudge
Wednesday, Oct 21 1998 11:26AM ET
Reply # of 306
Frank --
I'm here at Networld+InterOp and just had the full CrossKeys/ Newbridge demo at the
AT&T booth. I talked to both NN and AT&T engineers and both confirmed the
strength of the different products and what the benefits are to end-users. I asked who
the competition had been for the T contract and they threw out a list that included all the
big names. They couldn't be specific. . . only that it could have included any or all.
Richard McGinn, LU's CEO, spoke earlier this morning and while he didn't make any
exciting announcements, he did reiterate the importance of the ATM network both now
and in the future. The goal is to create a network of networks with a "common currency"
to connect them. They need QoS, bandwidth, advanced software platforms, all with
scaleability and at lower costs. He said the future will have optical fiber at the core
running converged ATM/IP networks The development in photonics is outpacing
Moore's law, including development of micro lasers for metropolitan area networks.
[Cambrian Systems.] Need intelligent QoS. These IP VPNs will need protocol agnostic
routing. Wireless will allow seamless roaming. "If we don't use the ground, we'll use the
air." Integration of both. Several times he spoke of the need for "advanced software
platforms delivering rich services with open interfacing" and "merged IP/ATM
networks." Discrete ATM will be the building block of these converged networks.
"Reliability has its roots in ATM."
In the Q&A, he said XDSL will take off in mid '99. Not all ISPs putting in DSLAMs
yet. When digital modems are sold to consumers, providers will have impetus to
upgrade. He said 1.5 mbps will come out first, followed over the next 3 to 6 years with
3 and 6 mbps. During this time they'll be incorporated into standard PCs.
A few statistics: telecommunications/data industry will be $650 billion by 2001. Lucent
is the largest provider in the world with 7% of total. Overall growth is 14% with many
subsegments much higher. Growth has been bigger than anything ever seen in the last
century. "It's nothing less than a revolution." There are 200 million wireless subscribers.
700 million telephone lines. By 2001 there'll be 700m more telephone lines and 700
million more wireless subscribers. In that time there'll be 1000 new ISPs. Lucent alone
spends $1 billion a year on network and IT costs. The Internet is tripling every year. In
3 to 4 years it'll bypass voice traffic. For years voice and data networks will have to
co-exist. They must work together.
McGinn will be interviewed on CNBC tomorrow at 8:00 EDT. Earnings cc at 11:00.
BAsed on McGinn's view of the future and on AT&T's demonstration of NN's 46020
and CrossKey's different software management tools, I have to conclude my stocks are
considerably undervalued.
I also had an interesting conversation last night with a NY sell-side analyst. He's anxious
to upgrade NN but is waiting for the GlobalOne announcement. But that's another story.
. .
Later --
Pat |
