Pat, thank you very much for your response back to me on each of the points. I appreciate the time you took to respond.
>>I'm assuming each point is written hypothetically. In other words, a big "if" could be inserted before each.<< Yes, thats correct.
>>Will carriers decide ADSL is the best use of their money? Well, what do they stand to lose if
MCI or Sprint or GTE or some local independent takes their telephony customers
because they can't offer a complete package? I recommend you search Bell
Atlantic's archives and find Ray Smith's speeches and other BA white papers. I
think it's widely agreed telcos have to offer a basket of services in order to keep
their customers. If you were CEO of a telco right now, would you turn your back
on the only viable high-speed bandwidth solution available?<<
BA is backpeddling on their ADSL committment. They used to say 1q97. Do you see it coming soon? I work in the industry, I have good friends at many carriers, suppliers, etc.. One of the RBOCs main concerns is if ADSL should have the money spent on it now, or is it better spent pursuing other paths such as long distance $$ in a huge profit industry. Multiple paths can be taken but money is tight and needed in the huge markets. ADSL is not considered a top priority right now at many of the RBOCs. This is expert insider analysis, trust me on this one. However, I do believe that if one of the larger IXCs should roll out ADSL into the RBOCs neck of the woods, a response would be needed. It would add fuel to the fire, something we should all hope for.
>>If by "popular choice" you mean ASND and Pairgain have gone with AWRE's
DMT, I certainly can't share your concern. I admit ASND and PAIR are both
major players but the fact that Amati didn't give its technology away for peanuts
doesn't mean its DMT is inferior. Quite the opposite.<<
Pat, I never meant to infer that Amati technology was inferior. I just meant that ASND and PAIR are major players and it will have a negative impact if they have lots of sales without Amati present in their product.
>>When you said "fly by night," who were
you referring to? <<
No one in particular, but rather as a statement that the ADSL developments my friends are working on are not at no-name companies. Sort of like Cascade selecting Sahara. Who is Sahara? Not implying they are fly by night, but I never heard of 'em.
I do hope this is a big year for Amati, my portfolio needs it! I think what happened to the Y2K stocks will happen to ADSL stocks in general the mid to latter part of '97, but hopefully without the retracements.
Mike |
