2 classic and informative Dooper RNTK posts from RB. Well worth reading and digesting.
>>By: Dooper55
Reply To: None Tuesday, 20 Oct 1998, 4:31 PM EDT
Post # of 1103
Some speculations/visions about RNTK's future........
The excitement here is killing me.....zzzzzzzz
Here's what I see happening in RNTK-land over the next few years. They are just my guesses and opinions. Probably nothing new for seasoned RNTKers. I invite comments/critiques.
1) TX deal is done. There is NO DOUBT the TX/RNTK combo is a moneymaker for bottoms. Cost for setup at a site with an existing gasifier will be about 1/4 to 1/3 that of a stand-alone natural gas GTL facility. About 18 months until first one is fired up. It'll be proof of principle/tweaking unit. TX will have done front end development and marketing before then so they'll be able to build and deliver gasifier/GTL or just GTL units (for somebody else's gasifiers)in short order afterwards. As these come online worldwide, RNTK should get a fee and initiate revenue flow of some amount per barrel. This will be big in the long run because every year there'll be more units online pumping (near zero cost) dollars to RNTK.
2) Look for about 2-3 RNTK GTL contracts for natural gas GTLing in niche opportunities in the next year to 18 months. Places where natural gas is a problem (has negative value). But 2-3 years before these start flowing (zero cost) revenue dollars to RNTK.
3) Okon, have done zip DD here so no opinions.
4) ITN/Global Solar will get their roll-to-roll solar cell machines/processes up and running and the laser scribing working (to cut cells). In 3-4 years this could be really important (moreso for ITN since RNTK owns just 5% of it) since it could dramatically reduce the $/installed KW of array. Potential for lower cost per KWH than conventional powerplants in the long run.
5) TCC plasma gasifier for natural gas will likely work out to RNTK's advantage, making them very competitive in natural gas GTL. Maybe even the lowest cost for GTL in which case they'll go online profitably sooner than others (but still some years out except for 2 above (near term niches)). A $60K probe, but a real pearl if it pans out.
6) India and China coal. Great opportunity for TX to give (oops, license) those countries the ability to convert their vast coal reserves into electrical power (TX without RNTK) and syncrude and diesel from TX/RNTK units. Better for the environment than other approaches too. This could get going within 2 years, especially if there are gasifiers already in place in China or India.
7) India wax plant. About a year before it flows a small revenue stream to RNTK. Don't know how the sanctions affect this but maybe RNTK would be involved in up to 2 additional plants similar to the one being installed. That's just speculation on my part. That would make India self-sufficient on F-T waxes. Any more plants and the wax price drops. Still small $/year to RNTK.
8) A near-term acquisition will add positive cash flow but nothing spectacular. I take that back. Getting into the black will be spectacular. My guess is 3-6 months to black ink. I will be absolutely delighted if it's sooner.
Sooooo......if I/you/anyone can tough it out for another year or so, the near-zero-cost revenue stream will start flowing and growing every year from several sources already on the radar screen. When that revenue stream is visible to, and quantifiable by, a larger group than we have here, RNTK will be a wonderful place to be.
In the meantime........zzzzzzz (unless, of couse, a miracle happens and we get insight into the TX/RNTK deal numbers/details).
All just MHO of course.
Doop III<<
Number 2:
>>By: Dooper55
Reply To: None Wednesday, 21 Oct 1998, 5:03 PM EDT
Post # of 1103
Spoke with RNTK today, summary (containing a new item) is:
1) Convertibles are all converted. Whether the shares have been sold into the market is not known to them.
2) They see no need to sell any more in the near future (they could raise $6M more that way if they needed to)
3) Approximately $3M in the bank, puts them in good cash position for the time being
4) Fiscal year end 10K due in mid December will be their next financial filing (quarterly/annual type). It will contain more on the TX deal since that filing calls for full disclosure of material financial facts. So that should be fun reading.
5) Mark had good visits on his recent road trip. Just got back this afternoon. No specifics, just satisfaction that they're getting the message out effectively. Will be on the road the bulk of the next 4-5 weeks.
6) Don't skip this one, "You heard it here first"... :-) ....... The November issue of Research Magazine (comes out Nov 1) will have a 3-page corporate profile of RNTK. This magazine goes to about 90,000 brokers/analysts monthly. One of the most widely-read magazines in the brokerage industry. It's a RNTK-sponsored profile. If this sounds bad to you, consider that Intel is paying to get their profile in the same issue. Typical profiles result in 1200-1500 requests from brokers/analysts for additional info, though Mark says he'll be very pleased if they get even 200-400 requests.
Best to all,
Doop III<<
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