Jan,
I can understand your concern. Best I can recall, here is the sequence of events:
- several weeks ago, I believed the market had turned bullish and we were on a move up... and it looked like I was right;
- last week, the market had the props knocked out from under it... supports gave way. I mentioned that and was VERY concerned that the bull would turn out to be a bear. In fact, VGY is STILL very bearish even today;
- GreenZpan, GZ's uncle, dropped interest rates which gave all the bulls turned bear investors reason to hope that we were back to our old BTD paradime and I went bullish after 500 points straight up.
- Yesterday and again this morning, I mentioned the markets, based on VGY resistance, would struggle here... even though we are now bullish on DOW, still bearish on VGY (which is more NAZ than DOW in behavior);
- tonight after doing my due diligence homework, I found that the resistance held and it LOOKS like we have a pull-back in the making. Based on Fib arcs, a 5% pullback is reasonable here. So I expect a pullback in a (potentially) bullish market.
ALWAYS REMEMBER AND NEVER FORGET... I trade options and I need to be on the right side of the market in my trades or I get (usually) creamed! So I try to be sensitive to the ebb and flow of the markets so I can hop aboard bearish stock options on pullbacks and bullish stock options during upmoves.
Good question and don't EVER hesitate to ask.
Bill
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